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All posts for the month October, 2014

A brief outline of all the key investment metrics for the STOXX 600 index. OTAS highlights stocks that are showing significantly positive or negative flags, including short sentiment, company director dealings, credit risks, as well as activity in the option markets. Also shown are names where analysts are notably bullish or bearish, and whether the sector-relative valuation is looking stretched or inexpensive by historic standards. The priority events schedule for the following day is attached at the bottom of this note.

image2014-10-31 8-52-26

Positive flags

image2014-10-31 8-52-38

Negative flags

image2014-10-31 8-52-57

Short Interest

Highest free float shares on loan    

Stock % FFS
SBMO NA 30.0
TGS NO 26.3
GTO NA 25.7
SBRY LN 24.8
PGS NO 20.9

Highest days to cover

Stock DTC
DKSH SW 42
SCH NO 34
GJF NO 33
KNEBV FH 30
BOL FP 30

Significant rise in past week

image2014-10-31 8-54-6

Significant fall in past week

image2014-10-31 8-55-17

Director Dealings

Trades in the past week

STOCK

BUY / SELL

NUMBER OF DIRECTORS

DIRECTOR LEVEL

No. of DAYS AGO

DANSKE DC

Buy

1

A

1

SGSN VX

Buy

1

A

1

SPM IM

Buy

1

A

2

DIA SM

Buy

1

A

3

LAD LN

Buy

3

C

4

GTO NA

Buy

1

A

4

VOLVB SS

Buy

16

B

4

PGS NO

Buy

2

A/B

4/5

BAS GY

Buy

3

A

4/5

YAR NO

Buy

1

A

5

SHP LN

Buy

2

A

5

KPN NA

Buy-Sell

2

A/C

2/3

SEBA SS

Buy-Sell

2

B/C

3/4

KNEBV FH

Buy-Sell

3

A/C

3/4/5

INCH LN

Sell

2

A/B

1

JYSK DC

Sell

2

A

1/2

ELUXB SS

Sell

1

B

2

NESN VX

Sell

1

B

2

NDA SS

Sell

1

B

3

BELG BB

Sell

1

B

3

STERV FH

Sell

1

C

3

HSBA LN

Sell

1

H

4

SWEDA SS

Sell

1

B

4

POP SM

Sell

1

H

5

CDS

Highest CDS

Stock CDS
ALU FP 417
ALPHA GA 397
ETE GA 367
EMG LN 350
LAD LN 312

Significant rise in past week

image2014-10-31 8-58-17

Significant fall in past week

image2014-10-31 8-58-36

Implied Volatility  

Largest expected three month price move

Stock IMP. VOL.
BMPS IM 121.1
FUR NA 65.8
AF FP 45.7
SBMO NA 45.1
BP IM 44.4

Significant rise in past week

image2014-10-31 8-59-18

Significant fall in past week

image2014-10-31 8-59-33

EPS Momentum

Top 10% Momentum in sector – 50 STOCKS  

Sector Stock(s)
Autos & Components: RNO, DAI, BMW
Banks: SWEDA, DNB, SYD8, ALPHA, RBS
Capital Goods: ASSAB, QQ/, FER, MTX, GEBN, OCI, BNZL, SAF
Commercial Services: IJ
Consumer Discretionary: BWY
Consumer Services: CPG
Diversified Financials: ICP, EMG, BME, KINVB, ACKB
Energy: NES1V, CNE
Staples: ICA
Food, Beverage & Tobacco: ARYN, VIS, ULVR
Healthcare: EKTAB, EI
Household & Pers. Pdt:
Insurance: TRYG, PHNX, CNP, DLG, AGS
Materials: BOL, OUT1V, PGIL, NHY
Media: SKYD
Pharma, Biotech & Life Sci: MEDAA
Real Estate: CAPC
Retailing : INCH
Semiconductors & Equip:
Software & Services
Tech Hardware & Equip: NOK1V
Telecommunications: TDC, TEL2B
Transport: GET, RYA
Utilities:

Bottom 10% Momentum in sector – 29 STOCKS

Sector Stock(s)
Autos & Components: ML
Banks: RBI, EUROB, BMPS, BP
Capital Goods: SGO, MAN, BBY, CNHI, SUN, VOLVB
Commercial Services:
Consumer Discretionary: MC
Consumer Services:
Diversified Financials: ASHM, IAP, JUP, MF
Energy: PGS
Staples: TSCO, SBRY
Food, Beverage & Tobacco:
Healthcare:
Household & Pers. Pdt:
Insurance: LRE, STJ, RSA
Materials:
Media: SCH
Pharma, Biotech & Life Sci: MOR
Real Estate:
Retailing :
Semiconductors & Equip:
Software & Services
Tech Hardware & Equip:
Telecommunications: KPN, O2D
Transport: AF, BOL
Utilities: ELE

Valuation

2 sd below average relative metric – 15 STOCKS  

Sector Stock(s)
Autos & Components:
Banks: STAN
Capital Goods: ANDR
Commercial Services: MPI, EXPN
Consumer Discretionary:
Consumer Services:
Diversified Financials:
Energy: GENL
Staples:
Food, Beverage & Tobacco: GCC, ULVR
Healthcare:
Household & Pers. Pdt:
Insurance:
Materials:
Media: RMV, MTGB, PUB
Pharma, Biotech & Life Sci: GRF, GXI, SAN
Real Estate:
Retailing :
Semiconductors & Equip:
Software & Services
Tech Hardware & Equip: GTO
Telecommunications:
Transport:
Utilities: DRX

2 sd above average relative metric – 61 STOCKS

Sector Stock(s)
Autos & Components: CON
Banks: RBS
Capital Goods: ASSAB, GEBN, SKAB, SAND, NCCB, MAN, G1A, KABN, OCI, BBY, SMIN, BA/, CNHI, MGGT, BOKA, ATCOA, PHIA
Commercial Services: IJ, SECUB, RTO, SGSN
Consumer Discretionary: ELUXB, SK
Consumer Services:
Diversified Financials: IAP, ACKB
Energy: STL, ENI, BP/, RDSA, FP
Staples: KESBV, AH, DELB
Food, Beverage & Tobacco: VIS, NUO
Healthcare: FRE, FME, SN/
Household & Pers. Pdt:
Insurance: TRYG, TOP, SAMAS, RSA, ZURN
Materials: YAR, GIVN, LXS, SY1, HUH1V, DSM, RIO, SOLB, LG
Media:
Pharma, Biotech & Life Sci: ROG
Real Estate: CORA
Retailing :
Semiconductors & Equip:
Software & Services
Tech Hardware & Equip: HLMA
Telecommunications: JAZ
Transport: FGP, SGC, MAERSKB
Utilities:

Monday’s Events

image2014-10-31 9-1-8

A brief outline of all the key investment metrics for the STOXX 600 index. OTAS highlights stocks that are showing significantly positive or negative flags, including short sentiment, company director dealings, credit risks, as well as activity in the option markets. Also shown are names where analysts are notably bullish or bearish, and whether the sector-relative valuation is looking stretched or inexpensive by historic standards. The priority events schedule for the following day is attached at the bottom of this note.

image2014-10-30 8-44-35

Positive flags

image2014-10-30 8-44-49

Negative flags

image2014-10-30 8-45-3

Short Interest

Highest free float shares on loan 

Stock % FFS
SBMO NA 29.8
TGS NO 26.8
GTO NA 25.8
SBRY LN 25.0
RCO FP 20.4

Highest days to cover

Stock DTC
DKSH SW 42
SCH NO 34
GJF NO 32
BOL FP 30
KNEBV FH 30

Significant rise in past week

image2014-10-30 8-45-42

Significant fall in past week

image2014-10-30 8-45-56

Director Dealings

Trades in the past week

STOCK

BUY / SELL

NUMBER OF DIRECTORS

DIRECTOR LEVEL

No. of DAYS AGO

KPN NA

Buy

1

A

2

LAD LN

Buy

3

C

3

BAS GY

Buy

3

A

3/4

GTO NA

Buy

3

A/C

3/5

YAR NO

Buy

1

A

4

SHP LN

Buy

2

A

4

TEL2B SS

Buy

1

B

4

OCDO LN

Buy

1

C

5

PGS NO

Buy

1

A

5

SEBA SS

Buy-Sell

2

B/C

2/3

KNEBV FH

Buy-Sell

3

A/C

2/3/4

JYSK DC

Sell

1

A

1

ELUXB SS

Sell

1

B

1

BELG BB

Sell

1

B

2

STERV FH

Sell

1

C

2

SWEDA SS

Sell

1

B

3

POP SM

Sell

1

H

4/5

NUO NA

Sell

1

B

5

NDA SS

Sell

1

B

5

CHR DC

Sell

1

B

5

CDS

Highest CDS    

Stock CDS
ALU FP 448
ALPHA GA 397
ETE GA 367
EMG LN 350
LAD LN 312

Significant rise in past week

image2014-10-30 8-47-21

Significant fall in past week

image2014-10-30 8-47-44

Implied Volatility  

Largest expected three month price move      

Stock IMP. VOL.
BMPS IM 77.0
FUR NA 55.8
AF FP 46.0
SBMO NA 43.1
BP IM 41.5

Significant rise in past week

image2014-10-30 8-48-26

Significant fall in past week

image2014-10-30 8-48-41

EPS Momentum

Top 10% Momentum in sector – 49 STOCKS    

Sector Stock(s)
Autos & Components: BMW, FCA, UG
Banks: SWEDA, DNB, PMI, ALPHA, EBS, RBS
Capital Goods: ASSAB, MTX, GEBN, ABG/P, SAF, SCHP
Commercial Services: IJ
Consumer Discretionary: BWY
Consumer Services: CPG
Diversified Financials: ICP, EMG, BME, KINVB, CBG
Energy: NES1V, CNE
Staples: ICA
Food, Beverage & Tobacco: ARYN, VIS, NUO, ULVR
Healthcare: EKTAB, EI
Household & Pers. Pdt:
Insurance: TRYG, PHNX, DLG, AGS
Materials: BOL, OUT1V, PGIL, NHY
Media: SKYD
Pharma, Biotech & Life Sci: MEDAA
Real Estate: CAPC
Retailing : INCH
Semiconductors & Equip:
Software & Services
Tech Hardware & Equip: NOK1V
Telecommunications: TDC, TEL2B
Transport: GET, RYA
Utilities:

 

Bottom 10% Momentum in sector – 29 STOCKS  

Sector Stock(s)
Autos & Components: ML
Banks: RBI, EUROB, BMPS, BP
Capital Goods: SGO, MAN, BBY, CNHI, SUN, VOLVB
Commercial Services:
Consumer Discretionary: MC
Consumer Services:
Diversified Financials: IAP, JUP, MF
Energy: PGS
Staples: TSCO, SBRY
Food, Beverage & Tobacco:
Healthcare:
Household & Pers. Pdt:
Insurance: LRE, STJ, RSA
Materials:
Media: SCH, MS
Pharma, Biotech & Life Sci: GXI, MOR
Real Estate: CAST
Retailing :
Semiconductors & Equip:
Software & Services
Tech Hardware & Equip:
Telecommunications: O2D
Transport: AF
Utilities: ELE

Valuation

 2 sd below average relative metric – 14 STOCKS   

Sector Stock(s)
Autos & Components:
Banks: STAN
Capital Goods: ANDR
Commercial Services: MPI
Consumer Discretionary:
Consumer Services:
Diversified Financials:
Energy: GENL
Staples:
Food, Beverage & Tobacco: GCC, ULVR
Healthcare:
Household & Pers. Pdt:
Insurance:
Materials:
Media: RMV, MTGB, PUB
Pharma, Biotech & Life Sci: GRF, GXI, SAN
Real Estate:
Retailing :
Semiconductors & Equip:
Software & Services
Tech Hardware & Equip: GTO
Telecommunications:
Transport:
Utilities: DRX

 

2 sd above average relative metric – 52 STOCKS

Sector Stock(s)
Autos & Components:
Banks: RBS
Capital Goods: ASSAB, GEBN, SAND, NCCB, MAN, G1A, KABN, OCI, BBY, SMIN, BA/, CNHI, MGGT, BOKA, ATCOA, PHIA
Commercial Services: IJ, SECUB, SGSN
Consumer Discretionary:
Consumer Services:
Diversified Financials: IAP, ACKB
Energy: STL, ENI, BP/, RDSA, FP
Staples: KESBV, AH, DELB
Food, Beverage & Tobacco: VIS, NUO
Healthcare: FRE, FME, SN/
Household & Pers. Pdt:
Insurance: TRYG, TOP, SAMAS, RSA, ZURN
Materials: YAR, GIVN, LXS, SY1, HUH1V, DSM, SOLB
Media:
Pharma, Biotech & Life Sci:
Real Estate: CORA
Retailing :
Semiconductors & Equip:
Software & Services
Tech Hardware & Equip: HLMA
Telecommunications: JAZ
Transport: FGP, MAERSKB
Utilities:

Friday’s Events

image2014-10-30 8-49-29

Looking at the Household and Personal Products sector in the S&P 500 with earnings coming up in the next couple of weeks, we are starting to see signs of strain despite the recent price rally for the group. Given the cyclical nature of these names and exposure to the strong dollar, OTAS can highlight when risks are appearing. We discuss two of the stocks below, AVP US and CLX US.

AVP US: Reports Q3 earnings tomorrow and stock has sold off recently, down 3.29% vs. the industry over the past week and 23.8% YTD. The stock is currently trading at a 2 standard deviation low vs. the industry, a multi-year low:

avp perf

 

avp perf chart

avp perf graph

Analysts have been negative on earnings expectations for the past 6 months and the stock is now in the bottom 10% of the industry. The stock de-rated again over the summer:

avp eps

 

avp eps graph

avp eps chart

Implied vol vs. the industry is flagging as over 2 standard deviations high, 2.8x the industry average and we’re seeing activity in the near dated out of the money DEC14 calls suggesting limited upside:

avp impavp imp chartavp imp graphavp imp volume

Short interest remains elevated above 2 standard deviations and at 9.88% of free float, near a high for the year. However, it is not the most shorted of its peer group:

avp siavp si graph avp si table

CLX US: reports earnings on Friday and the stock has recovered vs. the industry group by .17% over the past week and is up 5.1% vs. the industry MTD. The stock/industry spread is currently trading at over 2 standard deviations, a multi-year high:

clx perfclx perf tableclx perf chart

Fundamentals are flagging as unattractive with valuations at over 3 standard deviations higher than normal vs. the industry and at 1.19x the industry average while the dividend is flagging at 2.6 standard deviations lower than historical levels and only 1.48x covered:

clx valclx val chartclx divclx div chartclx div table

Implied vol is over 2 standard deviations high and at a multi-year high vs. the industry group. While we have seen the put ratio come down, suggesting people are transacting more in calls, we see the recent activity in the out of the money JAN15 calls is showing limited upside:

clx imp

clx imp graphclx imp chartclx imp volume

CDS levels are still elevated on a historical basis and are the highest among its peer group, as well as divergent with the price:

clx cdsclx cds tableclx diverg clx cds graph

Looking at the retail sector, we have seen some extreme underperformers over the past month, none as sharp as retail giant KSS US. After outperforming the market over the past 3 months, KSS US has erased most of its gains, heading into the pivotal holiday season. Interesting to note that over the past 3 months We have seen analysts consistently taking numbers down. What will be in store for next month?

1

If we look at the price chart over the past month, we see the that the market is up slightly, however KSS US has underperformed dramatically

2

Investors have taken note as the short interest on KSS US has reached extremely elevated levels. Currently the short % of free float share on loan is 16.25%, while the days to cover is 9.26.  Over the past 6 months we have seen the short interest increase; KSS US has now reached historical highs over the past month.

3

A brief outline of all the key investment metrics for the STOXX 600 index. OTAS highlights stocks that are showing significantly positive or negative flags, including short sentiment, company director dealings, credit risks, as well as activity in the option markets. Also shown are names where analysts are notably bullish or bearish, and whether the sector-relative valuation is looking stretched or inexpensive by historic standards. The priority events schedule for the following day is attached at the bottom of this note.

image2014-10-29 8-15-7

Positive flags

image2014-10-29 8-15-36

Negative flags

image2014-10-29 8-18-3

Short Interest

Highest free float shares on loan

Stock % FFS
TGS NO 20.8
EMSN SW 20.7
SBMO NA 18.7
SBRY LN 18.7
GTO NA 18.3

Highest days to cover

Stock DTC
EMSN SW 42
DKSH SW 32
SCH NO 25.3
BOL FP 25
PGIL LN 24

Significant rise in past week

image2014-10-29 8-21-50

Director Dealings

Trades in the past week

STOCK

BUY / SELL

NUMBER OF DIRECTORS

DIRECTOR LEVEL

No. of DAYS AGO

BELG BB

Sell

1

B

1

BAS GY

Buy

3

A

2

GTO NA

Buy

3

A

2

PGS NO

Buy

3

A

2

LAD LN

Buy

3

C

2

OCDO LN

Buy

1

C

2

PGS NO

Buy

1

A

2

SEBA SS

Sell

1

A

2

SWEDA SS

Sell

1

B

2

POP SM Buy/Sell 1 H 5
SHP LN Buy 2 A 5
KNEBV FH Buy/Sell 3 A 5
ARYN VX Buy 2 C 7
BAER VX Buy 1 A 7
WOS LN Buy 1 C 7
OPAP GA Sell 1 C 7

CDS

Highest CDS

Stock CDS
ALU FP 441
ALPHA GA 397
ETE GA 367
EMG LN 350
TUI1 GY 311

Significant rise in past week

image2014-10-29 8-56-27

Significant fall in past week

image2014-10-29 8-56-46

Implied Volatility

Largest expected three month price move

Stock IMP. VOL.
BMPS IM 77.6
FUR NA 49.1
AF FP 48.4
SBMO NA 43.6
PGS NO 42.8

Significant rise in past week

image2014-10-29 8-58-1

Significant fall in past week

image2014-10-29 8-58-26

EPS Momentum

Top 10% Momentum in sector – 53 STOCKS

Sector Stock(s)
Autos & Components: RNO, FCA, UG
Banks: SWEDA, PMI, ALPHA, EBS, RBS
Capital Goods: ASSAB, MTX, GEBN, ABG/P, OSR, WOS, SAF, SCHP
Commercial Services:
Consumer Discretionary: BWY
Consumer Services: CPG
Diversified Financials: ICP, EMG, BME, KINVB, PFG, CBG
Energy: NES1V, CNE
Staples: ICA
Food, Beverage & Tobacco: ARYN, VIS, NUO, ULVR
Healthcare: EKTAB, EI
Household & Pers. Pdt:
Insurance: TRYG, PHNX, DLG, MAP
Materials: BOL, OUT1V, PGIL, NHY
Media: SKYD
Pharma, Biotech & Life Sci: MEDAA, HIK
Real Estate: CAPC
Retailing : INCH
Semiconductors & Equip:
Software & Services
Tech Hardware & Equip: NOK1V, HEXAB
Telecommunications: TDC, TEL2B, CWC
Transport: GET, RYA
Utilities:

Bottom 10% Momentum in sector – 31 STOCKS

Sector Stock(s)
Autos & Components: ML
Banks: RBI, EUROB, BMPS, BP
Capital Goods: SGO, MAN, BBY, SUN, VOLVB
Commercial Services:
Consumer Discretionary: MC
Consumer Services:
Diversified Financials: IAP, JUP, MF
Energy: PGS
Staples: TSCO, SBRY
Food, Beverage & Tobacco:
Healthcare:
Household & Pers. Pdt: RB/
Insurance: LRE, STJ
Materials: FRES
Media: SCH, MS
Pharma, Biotech & Life Sci: GXI, MOR
Real Estate: IIA, CAST
Retailing :
Semiconductors & Equip:
Software & Services
Tech Hardware & Equip:
Telecommunications: KPN, O2D
Transport: AF
Utilities: ELE

Valuation

2 sd below average relative metric – 11 STOCKS

Sector Stock(s)
Autos & Components:
Banks: STAN
Capital Goods: ANDR
Commercial Services: EXPN
Consumer Discretionary:
Consumer Services:
Diversified Financials:
Energy:
Staples:
Food, Beverage & Tobacco: GCC, ULVR
Healthcare:
Household & Pers. Pdt:
Insurance:
Materials:
Media: RMV, MTGB
Pharma, Biotech & Life Sci: GRF, GXI, SAN
Real Estate:
Retailing :
Semiconductors & Equip:
Software & Services
Tech Hardware & Equip: GTO
Telecommunications:
Transport:
Utilities:

2 sd above average relative metric – 61 STOCKS

Sector Stock(s)
Autos & Components: CON
Banks: RBS
Capital Goods: ASSAB, MTX, PRY, GEBN, SKAB, SAND, DG, NCCB, MAN, G1A, KABN, OCI, SMIN, BA/, CNHI, BOKA, EN, ATCOA, PHIA, FNC, SU
Commercial Services: IJ, SECUB, EDEN, SGSN, BB
Consumer Discretionary: BRBY, CDI, BOSS, MC, ELUXB, SK
Consumer Services:
Diversified Financials: INVP, IAP, ACKB
Energy: STL, ENI, BP/, RDSA, BG/, FP
Staples: KESBV, AH, DELB
Food, Beverage & Tobacco: VIS, NUO
Healthcare: FRE
Household & Pers. Pdt:
Insurance: TRYG, TOP
Materials: NZYMB, YAR, GIVN, LXS, VOE, SY1, SKG, HUH1V, DSM, RIO, SOLB, LG
Media: KD8
Pharma, Biotech & Life Sci: ROG
Real Estate: LEG, CORA
Retailing :
Semiconductors & Equip:
Software & Services
Tech Hardware & Equip:
Telecommunications: JAZ
Transport: FGP, MAERSKB
Utilities:

Thursday’s Events

image2014-10-29 9-14-2

Six months ago, the Chinese premier Li Keqiang announced that the ‘through train’ between the Hong Kong and Shanghai Stock Exchanges would be ready to go in October 2014 – a scheme that would allow foreign investors access to China’s $4 trillion stock market, integrating it with the rest of the global financial system. The excitement of the investors is very well reflected on the [388] sharing price where it has been outperforming the market since April – then began trading down as the Occupy Central’s protests started in September when China indicated there’s no room for negotiation on the reforms:

image2014-10-29 16-7-14

 The Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Chief Charles Li refused to comment on whether the pro-democracy Occupy Central protests had played a part in the delay. He simply left a remark ‘Some smart people at the top will make the decision at some point’, referring to the officials in the Beijing government.

2

Despite apparent positive outlook such as EPS estimates up by 1.53% and short interest coming down by nearly 9% over the past week, along with the Q3 2014 Earnings Release coming up in 7 days, [388] has not survived the political turbulence and its price was plunged -2.1% in the past week and has been underperforming the market and the industry by -3.17% and -4.35%, respectively.

The Stock Connect Scheme is regarded as one of the largest market developments in China for decades and was set to be commenced in October 2014. Now that there is no firm date for the scheme’s implementation, the share price started a downward trend and the prospect of [388] is doubtful to be positive again until market expectations have been met again.

According to a recently conducted report by EY, 69 UK companies issued profit warnings in Q3 this year. That is the highest quarterly figure since 2008 and offers a wake up call to the perhaps overly ambitious (or in some cases, dishonest) executives that have overestimated the strength of Britain’s economic recovery. After the market sell off a couple of weeks ago, many share prices have begun the road to normality – however does this apply to those stocks still licking their wounds from below forecast earnings? What does the Christmas period have in store for some of these names?

image2014-10-28 11-5-37

From a top down perspective, there are no real surprises considering the stocks in question: low valuation, high short interest and negative EPS momentum. Implied volatility (limited coverage) has started to retreat from recent highs, as has CDS however both appear to be trading at the upper ends of their 1 year ranges.

By digging deeper though, we can uncover those stocks that have seen the most pronounced reductions in a variety of risk indicators including short interest and by doing so narrow down the list of stocks that may be beginning the road to recovery as we approach the Christmas season.

TATE LN gave its second profit warning of the year in September and fell 18% in the process. Now though, the stock is starting to show small signs of life.

image2014-10-28 11-8-20

We can see that EPS estimates remain negative, however analysts no doubt continue to readjust their estimates following recent turbulence. Directors have started buying stock, and short interest has come down by nearly 20% over the past week. CDS has also moderated slightly, however continues to trade above 1 year averages. With earnings in 9 days time, a small surprise could yield a significant recovery in the short term performance of the stock.

ASC LN has also had its fair share of bad news this year with profit warnings, warehouse fires and an unseasonably warm autumn. However, following a 65% drop in its share price since January, there are some small signs of hope for the distressed web retailer.

image2014-10-28 11-27-43

Earnings 7 days ago resulted in a modest recovery with the stock up nearly 10% over the course of last week. 2 directors. including the newly appointed COO, bought stock immediately after the earnings release and short interest has come down by 4% over the past week. The stock continues to trade at a whopping 45x earnings, although such a valuation is actually well below its average rating against the market and the sector. EPS estimates have been increased by 1% over the past week and analysts could yet increase their estimates in the coming weeks as the stock introduces new management in the lead up to Christmas.

In addition to those stocks in the recovery ward, there are a few who remain on the operating table.

HL/ LN has seen its short base rise by 14% over the past week, despite share price performance being positive (+3%) and a technical buy signal firing on Friday’s close. EPS momentum is highly divergent to 1 month price performance as well as the mentioned increase in short interest.

image2014-10-28 11-52-17

Finally, there seems to be little light at the end of the tunnel for TSCO LN – EPS Momentum continues to lie in the bottom 10% of the sector and CDS has blown out significantly over the past 5 days to its highest ever level. Price targets continue to be cut and the stock is trading at a 1 standard deviation premium to where it normally trades against the wider sector. The stock goes ex dividend in 2 days time and is offering a below par dividend yield of 3.4%.

image2014-10-28 12-2-43

A brief outline of all the key investment metrics for the STOXX 600 index. OTAS highlights stocks that are showing significantly positive or negative flags, including short sentiment, company director dealings, credit risks, as well as activity in the option markets. Also shown are names where analysts are notably bullish or bearish, and whether the sector-relative valuation is looking stretched or inexpensive by historic standards. The priority events schedule for the following day is attached at the bottom of this note.

image2014-10-28 8-48-5

Positive flags

image2014-10-28 8-48-20

Negative flags

image2014-10-28 8-48-32

Short Interest

Highest free float shares on loan

Stock % FFS
SBMO NA 29.3
TGS NO 27.1
GTO NA 26.7
SBRY LN 24.6
NRE1V FH 20.3

Highest days to cover

Stock DTC
DKSH SW 41
SCH NO 33
GTO NA 30
KNEBV FH 30
BOL FP 29

Significant rise in past week

Significant fall in past week

Director Dealings

Trades in the past week

STOCK

BUY / SELL

NUMBER OF DIRECTORS

DIRECTOR LEVEL

No. of DAYS AGO

LAD LN

Buy

3

C

1

YAR NO

Buy

1

A

2

SHP LN

Buy

2

A

2

BAS GY

Buy

1

A

2

GTO NA

Buy

1

A

3

OCDO LN

Buy

1

C

3

PGS NO

Buy

1

A

3

BAER VX

Buy

1

A

4

WOS LN

Buy

1

C

4

ARYN VX

Buy

1

C

4

FDR FP

Buy

2

C

5

SAP GY

Buy

3

A

5

KNEBV FH

Buy-Sell

2

A

1/2

PMI SM

Buy-Sell

1

C

5

SWEDA SS

Sell

1

B

1

NDA SS

Sell

1

B

3

CHR DC

Sell

1

B

3/4

OPAP GA

Sell

1

C

4

GAM SW

Sell

1

C

5

TPK LN

Sell

1

B

5

CDS

Highest CDS

Stock CDS
ALU FP 438
ALPHA GA 387
ETE GA 367
EMG LN 350
TUI1 GY 311

Significant rise in past week

Significant fall in past week

Implied Volatility

Largest expected three month price move

Stock IMP. VOL.
BMPS IM 77.6
FUR NA 49.1
AF FP 47.6
SBMO NA 44.0
PGS NO 43.1

Significant rise in past week

image2014-10-28 8-52-31

Significant fall in past week

image2014-10-28 8-52-42

EPS Momentum

Top 10% Momentum in sector – 53 STOCKS

Sector Stock(s)
Autos & Components: RNO, FCA, UG
Banks: SWEDA, PMI, ALPHA, EBS, RBS
Capital Goods: ASSAB, QQ/, FER, MTX, GEBN, ABG/P, OSR, WOS, SCHP
Commercial Services:
Consumer Discretionary: BWY
Consumer Services: CPG
Diversified Financials: ICP, EMG, BME, KINVB, PFG, CBG
Energy: NES1V, CNE
Staples: ICA
Food, Beverage & Tobacco: ARYN, NUO
Healthcare: EKTAB, EI
Household & Pers. Pdt:
Insurance: TRYG, PHNX, DLG, G, MAP
Materials: BOL, OUT1V, PGIL, NHY
Media: SKYD
Pharma, Biotech & Life Sci: MEDAA, ATLN, HIK
Real Estate:
Retailing : INCH
Semiconductors & Equip:
Software & Services
Tech Hardware & Equip: NOK1V
Telecommunications: TDC, TEL2B, CWC
Transport: GET, RYA
Utilities: REE

 

Bottom 10% Momentum in sector – 33 STOCKS

Sector Stock(s)
Autos & Components: LEO
Banks: RBI, EUROB, BMPS, BP, POP
Capital Goods: SGO, MAN, BBY, CNHI, VOLVB
Commercial Services:
Consumer Discretionary: MC
Consumer Services: LAD
Diversified Financials: ASHM, IAP, JUP, MF
Energy: PGS
Staples: TSCO, SBRY
Food, Beverage & Tobacco:
Healthcare:
Household & Pers. Pdt: RB/
Insurance: LRE, SL/, STJ
Materials:
Media: SCH, MS
Pharma, Biotech & Life Sci: GXI, MOR
Real Estate: IIA, CAST
Retailing :
Semiconductors & Equip:
Software & Services
Tech Hardware & Equip:
Telecommunications: KPN, O2D
Transport: AF
Utilities:

Valuation

2 sd below average relative metric – 11 STOCKS

Sector Stock(s)
Autos & Components:
Banks:
Capital Goods: ANDR
Commercial Services: MPI, EXPN
Consumer Discretionary:
Consumer Services:
Diversified Financials:
Energy: GENL
Staples: DIA
Food, Beverage & Tobacco: GCC, ULVR
Healthcare:
Household & Pers. Pdt:
Insurance:
Materials:
Media: RMV
Pharma, Biotech & Life Sci: GRF, GXI
Real Estate:
Retailing :
Semiconductors & Equip:
Software & Services
Tech Hardware & Equip: GTO
Telecommunications:
Transport:
Utilities:

 

2 sd above average relative metric – 61 STOCKS

Sector Stock(s)
Autos & Components: CON
Banks: RBS
Capital Goods: ASSAB, MTX, PRY, GEBN, SKAB, SAND, DG, NCCB, MAN, G1A, KABN, OCI, SMIN, BA/, CNHI, BOKA, EN, ATCOA, PHIA, FNC, SU
Commercial Services: IJ, SECUB, SGSN
Consumer Discretionary: BRBY, BOSS, PNDORA, ELUXB, SK
Consumer Services:
Diversified Financials: IAP
Energy: STL, ENI, BP/, RDSA, BG/, FP
Staples: KESBV, AH, DELB
Food, Beverage & Tobacco: VIS, NUO
Healthcare:
Household & Pers. Pdt:
Insurance: TRYG, TOP
Materials: NZYMB, YAR, GIVN, LXS, VOE, SY1, SKG, HUH1V, DSM, RIO, SOLB, LG
Media: KD8
Pharma, Biotech & Life Sci:
Real Estate:
Retailing :
Semiconductors & Equip:
Software & Services
Tech Hardware & Equip:
Telecommunications: JAZ
Transport: FGP, MAERSKB
Utilities:

Wednesday’s Events

image2014-10-28 8-53-28

A brief outline of all the key investment metrics for the STOXX 600 index. OTAS highlights stocks that are showing significantly positive or negative flags, including short sentiment, company director dealings, credit risks, as well as activity in the option markets. Also shown are names where analysts are notably bullish or bearish, and whether the sector-relative valuation is looking stretched or inexpensive by historic standards. The priority events schedule for the following day is attached at the bottom of this note.

image2014-10-27 9-15-13

Positive flags

image2014-10-27 9-15-27

Negative flags

image2014-10-27 9-16-12

Short Interest

Highest free float shares on loan  

Stock % FFS
SBMO NA 29.2
TGS NO 26.9
GTO NA 26.1
SBRY LN 24.6
NRE1V FH 20.4

Highest days to cover

Stock DTC
DKSH SW 42
SCH NO 34
GTO NA 30
KNEBV FH 30
SCHP VX 29

Significant rise in past week

image2014-10-27 9-16-38

Significant fall in past week

image2014-10-27 9-16-46

Director Dealings

Trades in the past week

STOCK

BUY / SELL

NUMBER OF DIRECTORS

DIRECTOR LEVEL

No. of DAYS AGO

BAS GY

Buy

1

A

1

GTO NA

Buy

1

A

2

OCDO LN

Buy

1

C

2

PGS NO

Buy

1

A

2

BAER VX

Buy

1

A

3

WOS LN

Buy

1

C

3

ARYN VX

Buy

1

C

3

SAP GY

Buy

3

A

4/5

POP SM

Buy

1

A

5

PMI SM

Buy-Sell

1

C

4

NDA SS

Sell

1

B

2

CHR DC

Sell

1

B

2/3

OPAP GA

Sell

1

C

3

GAM SW

Sell

1

C

4

TPK LN

Sell

1

B

4

CDS

Highest CDS  

Stock CDS
ALU FP 441
ALPHA GA 387
ETE GA 367
EMG LN 350
TUI1 GY 309

Significant rise in past week

No significant increases

Significant fall in past week

image2014-10-27 9-19-27

Implied Volatility

Largest expected three month price move

Stock IMP. VOL.
BMPS IM 77.5
FUR NA 47.6
AF FP 43.7
PGS NO 43.6
BP IM 43.4

Significant rise in past week

image2014-10-27 9-18-58

Significant fall in past week

image2014-10-27 9-18-46

EPS Momentum

Top 10% Momentum in sector – 49 STOCKS  

Sector Stock(s)
Autos & Components: RNO, UG, FR
Banks: SWEDA, PMI, ALPHA, RBS
Capital Goods: QQ/, FER, MTX, GEBN, SKAB, ABG/P, OSR, WOS, EN
Commercial Services:
Consumer Discretionary: BWY
Consumer Services: CPG
Diversified Financials: EMG, BME, KINVB, PFG
Energy: NES1V, CNE
Staples: ICA
Food, Beverage & Tobacco: ARYN, NUO, MHG
Healthcare: EKTAB, EI
Household & Pers. Pdt:
Insurance: TRYG, PHNX, DLG, AGS, MAP
Materials: BOL, OUT1V, NHY
Media: SKYD
Pharma, Biotech & Life Sci: MEDAA, HIK
Real Estate:
Retailing : INCH
Semiconductors & Equip:
Software & Services
Tech Hardware & Equip: NOK1V
Telecommunications: TDC, TKA, CWC
Transport: GET, RYA
Utilities: REE

Bottom 10% Momentum in sector – 35 STOCKS  

Sector Stock(s)
Autos & Components:
Banks: RBI, EUROB, BMPS, BP, POP
Capital Goods: MAN, OCI, BBY, CNHI, SUN, VOLVB
Commercial Services:
Consumer Discretionary: MC
Consumer Services: LAD
Diversified Financials: ASHM, IAP, JUP, MF
Energy: PGS
Staples: TSCO, SBRY
Food, Beverage & Tobacco: TATE
Healthcare:
Household & Pers. Pdt: RB/
Insurance: LRE, SL/, STJ
Materials: FRES
Media: SCH, MS
Pharma, Biotech & Life Sci: GXI, MOR
Real Estate: IIA, CAST
Retailing :
Semiconductors & Equip:
Software & Services
Tech Hardware & Equip:
Telecommunications: KPN, O2D
Transport: AF
Utilities:

Valuation

2 sd below average relative metric – 9 STOCKS  

Sector Stock(s)
Autos & Components:
Banks:
Capital Goods: ANDR
Commercial Services: EXPN
Consumer Discretionary:
Consumer Services:
Diversified Financials:
Energy:
Staples: DIA
Food, Beverage & Tobacco: GCC, ULVR
Healthcare:
Household & Pers. Pdt:
Insurance:
Materials:
Media: RMV, MTGB
Pharma, Biotech & Life Sci: GRF, GXI
Real Estate:
Retailing :
Semiconductors & Equip:
Software & Services
Tech Hardware & Equip:
Telecommunications:
Transport:
Utilities:

2 sd above average relative metric – 64 STOCKS

Sector Stock(s)
Autos & Components: CON
Banks: RBS, ISP
Capital Goods: ASSAB, MTX, PRY, GEBN, SKAB, SAND, DG, NCCB, MAN, G1A, KABN, OCI, SMIN, BA/, CNHI, BOKA, EN, ATCOA, PHIA, FNC, SU
Commercial Services: IJ, SECUB, EDEN, SGSN
Consumer Discretionary: BRBY, BOSS, ELUXB, SK
Consumer Services:
Diversified Financials: IAP
Energy: STL, ENI, BP/, RDSA, BG/, FP
Staples: KESBV, AH, DELB
Food, Beverage & Tobacco: VIS, NUO
Healthcare:
Household & Pers. Pdt:
Insurance: TRYG, TOP
Materials: YAR, GIVN, LXS, VOE, SY1, SKG, HUH1V, DSM, RIO, SOLB, LG
Media: KD8
Pharma, Biotech & Life Sci: ROG
Real Estate: LEG, CORA
Retailing :
Semiconductors & Equip:
Software & Services
Tech Hardware & Equip: HLMA
Telecommunications:
Transport: FGP, MAERSKB
Utilities:

 Tuesday’s Events

image2014-10-27 9-18-12

A brief outline of all the key investment metrics for the STOXX 600 index. OTAS highlights stocks that are showing significantly positive or negative flags, including short sentiment, company director dealings, credit risks, as well as activity in the option markets. Also shown are names where analysts are notably bullish or bearish, and whether the sector-relative valuation is looking stretched or inexpensive by historic standards. The priority events schedule for the following day is attached at the bottom of this note.

image2014-10-24 11-5-53

Positive flags

image2014-10-24 11-6-0

Negative flags

image2014-10-24 11-6-13

Short Interest

Highest free float shares on loan 

Stock % FFS
SBMO NA 29.9
TGS NO 26.8
GTO NA 26.1
SBRY LN 24.4
NRE1V FH 20.3

Highest days to cover

Stock DTC
DKSH SW 41
SCH NO 36
GTO NA 31
KNEBV FH 30
OCI NA 28

Significant rise in past week

image2014-10-24 11-6-26

Significant fall in past week

image2014-10-24 11-6-34

Director Dealings

Trades in the past week

STOCK

BUY / SELL

NUMBER OF DIRECTORS

DIRECTOR LEVEL

No. of DAYS AGO

GTO NA

Buy

1

A

1

OCDO LN

Buy

1

C

1

PGS NO

Buy

1

A/H

1/5

BAER VX

Buy

1

A

2

WOS LN

Buy

1

C

2

ARYN VX

Buy

1

C

2

SAP GY

Buy

3

A

3/4

SDF GY

Buy

1

A

5

ROR LN

Buy

1

B

5

JUP LN

Buy

1

A

5

SLHN VX

Buy

1

A

5

OCI NA

Buy

1

A

5

SUN SW

Buy

1

A

5

PMI SM

Buy-Sell

1

C

3/5

POP SM

Buy-Sell

1

H

4/5

GAM SW

Sell

1

C

3

TPK LN

Sell

1

B

3

CDS

Highest CDS

Stock CDS
ALU FP 441
ALPHA GA 387
ETE GA 367
EMG LN 350
TUI1 GY 309

Significant rise in past week

No significant increases

Significant fall in past week

image2014-10-24 11-6-44

Implied Volatility

Largest expected three month price move

Stock IMP. VOL.
BMPS IM 75.0
FUR NA 45.4
AF FP 43.7
PGS NO 43.6
BP IM 43.4

Significant rise in past week

image2014-10-24 11-6-52

Significant fall in past week

image2014-10-24 11-6-58

 EPS Momentum

Top 10% Momentum in sector – 46 STOCKS

Sector Stock(s)
Autos & Components: RNO, UG, FR
Banks: BP, ALPHA, RBS
Capital Goods: QQ/, FER, MTX, GEBN, SKAB, ABG/P, OSR, WOS
Commercial Services:
Consumer Discretionary:
Consumer Services: TCG
Diversified Financials: EMG, BME, KINVB, PFG
Energy: NES1V, CNE
Staples: ICA
Food, Beverage & Tobacco: ARYN, NUO, MHG
Healthcare: EKTAB, EI
Household & Pers. Pdt:
Insurance: TRYG, PHNX, DLG, AGS, MAP
Materials: BOL, OUT1V, NHY
Media: SKYD
Pharma, Biotech & Life Sci: MEDAA, HIK
Real Estate:
Retailing : INCH
Semiconductors & Equip:
Software & Services
Tech Hardware & Equip: NOK1V
Telecommunications: TKA, HTO, CWC
Transport: GET, RYA
Utilities: REE

 

Bottom 10% Momentum in sector – 36 STOCKS    

Sector Stock(s)
Autos & Components:
Banks: RBI, EUROB, BMPS, POP
Capital Goods: MAN, OCI, BBY, SKFB, VOLVB
Commercial Services: MPI
Consumer Discretionary: CFR, MC
Consumer Services: PWL, LAD
Diversified Financials: ASHM, IAP, JUP, MF
Energy: PGS
Staples: TSCO, SBRY
Food, Beverage & Tobacco: TATE
Healthcare:
Household & Pers. Pdt:
Insurance: LRE, SL/, STJ
Materials: FRES
Media: SCH, MS
Pharma, Biotech & Life Sci: GXI, MOR
Real Estate: IIA, CAST
Retailing :
Semiconductors & Equip:
Software & Services
Tech Hardware & Equip:
Telecommunications: KPN, O2D
Transport: AF
Utilities:

 

Valuation

2 sd below average relative metric – 8 STOCKS  

Sector Stock(s)
Autos & Components:
Banks:
Capital Goods: ANDR, EXPN
Commercial Services:
Consumer Discretionary:
Consumer Services:
Diversified Financials:
Energy:
Staples: DIA
Food, Beverage & Tobacco: ULVR
Healthcare: EKTAB
Household & Pers. Pdt:
Insurance:
Materials:
Media: RMV, MTGB
Pharma, Biotech & Life Sci: GRF
Real Estate:
Retailing :
Semiconductors & Equip:
Software & Services
Tech Hardware & Equip:
Telecommunications:
Transport:
Utilities:

2 sd above average relative metric – 65 STOCKS

Sector Stock(s)
Autos & Components: CON
Banks: CABK, RBS
Capital Goods: ASSAB, MTX, PRY, GEBN, SKAB, SAND, DG, NCCB, MAN, G1A, KABN, OCI, SMIN, BA/, BOKA, EN, ATCOA, PHIA, FNC, SU
Commercial Services: IJ, SECUB, EDEN, GFS, RTO, SGSN
Consumer Discretionary: BRBY, BOSS, PNDORA, JM, ELUXB
Consumer Services:
Diversified Financials: IAP
Energy: STL, ENI, BP/, RDSA, BG/, FP
Staples: KESBV, AH, DELB
Food, Beverage & Tobacco: VIS, NUO
Healthcare:
Household & Pers. Pdt:
Insurance: TRYG, TOP
Materials: YAR, GIVN, LXS, VOE, SY1, SKG, HUH1V, DSM, RIO, SOLB, LG
Media: KD8
Pharma, Biotech & Life Sci: ROG
Real Estate: LEG, CORA
Retailing :
Semiconductors & Equip:
Software & Services
Tech Hardware & Equip:
Telecommunications:
Transport: FGP, MAERSKB
Utilities:

 Monday’s Events

 image2014-10-24 11-7-10