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UK Retail : Short Covering Ahead of Numbers

Posted by Ben Lock on September 14, 2016
Posted in: Market Commentary.

The European Food & Staples Retailing sector has seen particularly unusual activity in short interest for two of its UK listed constituents. OTAS has identified both Morrison’s and Sainsbury’s have seen an extreme* contraction in the percentage of free float on loan in the last week suggesting Hedge Funds are aggressively re-thinking short bets against both companies. Moreover, both companies are due to report financials imminently.

OTAS applications Top Stocks and Lingo both alerted you to these moves(and other outlying factors)

Top Stocks – Positive Screen – Sainsburys & Morrisons ranked #1 & 2
mrw

A further deep dive across multiple OTAS observables can be conducted via the single stock Core Summary providing a complete assessment of potential directional triggers.

For example Morrison’s screens positively due to the contraction in short interest but has a number of other potential risk factors to consider:-

  • Shares up 32% YTD and have outperformed the European Retail sector by 43%
  • EPS momentum vs Price diverged from long term trend suggesting the market is already pricing in a better outlook for Morrison’s.
  • Shares currently trading at a 13% premium to analyst ave. price target.
  • Small pull back in price has prompted higher degree of short covering into earnings, with short interest still at around 14% of free float.
  • ‘Experts’ still remain negative on the stock as identified by the TIM Alpha Capture indicator.

mrw1

Particularly powerful around financial reporting, OTAS’s award winning analytics provides you with multi-asset intelligence and risk outliers in one ‘go-to’ place, allowing you to make more informed investment decisions and provide a better understanding of factors which could impact on share prices.

 

*statistically higher than average 5 day moves over the last 2 years

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